Three Percent Population The Demographic Shift
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Three Percent Population
Page 14

Transformation of Cultures

As an example of what the future will probably hold for Church Populations, we may look at a town like Peterborough in Ontario, Canada. The church map could be transformed as follows with one Anglican church population supporting one building with possibly a second smaller mission church location elsewhere.

The church in 1999 and 2018

Fewer Dynamic Churches

By 2019 according to the statistics, Anglicans will have become a denomination similar to the Episcopal Church in the United States, which represents just three percent of the population. Today's mainline Church is currently supported by ten to fourteen percent of Canadians, according to Statistics Canada but I would forecast it will shrink to three percent population as in the USA Between now and 2028, about two-thirds of the Anglican churches in the Diocese of Toronto will be closed. One Anglican Church in one town will become a reality but not a necessity or there may not be any. As happens now, people will drive past numerous church buildings to the one of their liking.

Fewer Churches, Clergy, Congregations

The number of largely small suburban churches will be slashed. City churches will probably fare better. Not that they will have large enough congregations, but that they may have other substantial resources to sustain them including air rights money or valuable property to sell. The Diocese of Toronto will have a few large, some medium but not as many small congregations drawn from their three percent share in the population. All will have lower incomes and fewer leaders. Those without large financial reserves will be unable to continue. Smaller modern churches with low overheads will probably last longer than larger stone buildings with higher maintenance costs. The Diocese will be unable or unwilling to offer substantial financial help for failing churches.

"Three Percent Population"
by Ron Meacock © 2019

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