The Demographic Shift
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3. The New Paradigm 
So why the concern about the church of 2018 A.D.? In a word, our Anglican Diocese of Toronto will shrink to a fraction of its present size. The Elders in our congregation are aging and dying but the Boomers are not replacing them.
Shrinking Dioceses
By 2018 A.D., instead of the present 273 parishes, we will have more like 96. Rather than our 259 Parish Clergy, I project we will need 133. This is not an exaggeration. It is a fair estimate, based upon our present churches' effectiveness and established trends in society.
Elders Gone
Let us compare today's church with that of 2018 A.D. Our present "Elders" group with their leadership skills, financial support and influence will be gone from power. There will be few Baby Boomers there interested in replacing them or supporting the institution. There will be little or no funds to keep redundant churches open to amalgamate or combine. Many churches will be closed and sold. This is basically because Baby Boomers may have characteristics like "spirituality" and a need for "meaning in life" but not in attending or supporting an institutional church. A city like Peterborough of seventy thousand which may presently have six churches may end up in 2018 A.D. with only one or two facilities. Parish income will drop radically, maybe to a third of present.
Anglican Transformation
The Anglican population in a town could be transformed as follows:
By 2018 A.D. we will have become a denomination similar to the Episcopal Church in the United States, which represents three percent of the population. Today's mainline Anglican Church is currently supported by ten to fourteen percent of Canadians, according to Statistics Canada.
Fewer Dynamic Churches
Between now and 2018 A.D., about two-thirds of the Anglican Church in the Diocese of Toronto will be closed. One Anglican Church in one town will become a reality but not a necessity - there may not be any. As happens now, people will drive past numerous church buildings to the one of their liking. The number of suburban churches will be slashed. City churches will probably fare better. Not that they will have large enough congregations, but that they may have other substantial resources to sustain them - air rights moneys or valuable property to sell, etc.
The Diocese of Toronto will have a few large, some medium but not as many small congregations. All will have lower incomes and fewer leaders. Those without large financial reserves will be unable to continue. Smaller modern churches with low overheads will probably last longer than larger stone buildings with higher maintenance costs. The Diocese as now will be unable to offer substantial financial help.
Unsympathetic Governments
The situation will be made worse by the replacement of supportive "Elders" in leadership positions in society with secular "Baby Boomers." These new executives in municipal, provincial and national governments are unlikely to be as sympathetic towards the churches as their Elder predecessors. They will undoubtedly tax churches as well as rectory properties. They will legislate the requirement for church elevators, modern kitchens and upgraded washroom facilities. If the property taxes in 2007 on a $230,000 house is $3,000 a year, the tax on a church building assessed at $2,300,000 is likely to be $30,000 a year.
Crippling Budgets
This will cripple most church budgets especially when other income is shrinking. Unsympathetic governments will remove tax advantages like housing allowances for clergy and breaks on realty taxes on church buildings. The writing is already on the wall with clergy paying taxes on parish house utilities. Basically, our charitable status will be watered down until we are treated just like businesses. The combination of spiralling property tax and maintenance costs together with falling income, and the effects of the demographic shift will be the death-knell to many neighbourhood Anglican congregations.
More Weddings, Fewer Baptisms and No Funerals
There will be a continued decreasing demand, I believe, for some "rites of passage" in the church like church funerals. On the other hand, there will be an increased desire for weddings and baptisms in gardens, restaurants, boats and under favourite trees as these reflect the need for a quirky kind of spirituality in both the Boomers and Generation X'ers. We could react by designating a few redundant churches as "Marriage Chapels" with a cleric trained in marriage counselling. This would be an alternative to the banquet hall business. We will need to compete commercially with other wedding facilities to win back the notion of the Christian Marriage. The Boomers will come for church weddings if we can be flexible and make a sound financial case for them. We need to offer people what they want, but within certain Christian parameters. Our institution will need to become more flexible and loosen our rules to meet these new challenges.
Boomers and Generation X'ers will continue to be afraid of death, shun funerals and funeral parlors. Eternal life will have little relevance with their emphasis on living life "to the max" now. Our primary opportunity for evangelism in 2018 A.D. will likely be in teaching Christian meditation and spirituality through house, table and other small groups.
"2018 : The Demographic Shift"
